MICRO MARKET MONDAY: Merville & Black Creek

Why Acreage, Waterfront and Zoning Matter in These Complex Rural Market Areas

Merville and Black Creek are often grouped together as one Vancouver Island Real Estate Board market sub area. From an analytical perspective, however, this is certainly not one uniform real estate market.

Properties range from modest homes on smaller rural lots to agricultural acreages, manufactured homes, vacant land, riverfront properties, lakefront homes and high-value oceanfront estates.

Zoning also varies considerably throughout the area with many parcels within the BC Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR).

Jackson & Associates reviewed 305 MLS records in the combined Merville–Black Creek area from January 1, 2022 through July 20, 2026. The dataset includes 263 completed sales, 38 active listings and four pending transactions.

Sales Activity Has Remained Relatively Consistent

There were:

• 52 completed sales in 2022

• 55 in 2023

• 68 in 2024

• 59 in 2025

• 29 completed sales during 2026 year-to-date, plus four pending transactions

The market reached its highest sales volume in 2024. Based on activity through July 20, the 2026 pace appears broadly consistent with 2025.

Single-family dwelling prices have generally moved higher. The median SFD sale price increased from $885,000 in 2022 to $975,000 in 2023. It declined slightly to $946,250 in 2024, returned to $975,000 in 2025 and increased to $1,128,950 during 2026 year-to-date.

That represents an apparent 15.8% increase from 2025. However, only 22 completed SFD sales are included in the 2026 result. Several were larger or higher-value rural properties. In a heterogeneous rural market, changes in the types of properties selling can move the median substantially without representing an equivalent increase in every property’s value.

Merville and Black Creek Have Different Property Profiles

Although MLS reporting combines the two communities, an address-based working classification identified meaningful differences between them.

Merville recorded 39 completed SFD sales, with:

• A median sale price of $1.20 million

• An average sale price of approximately $1.27 million

• A median site area of two acres

• Median marketing time of 36 days

Black Creek recorded 169 SFD sales, with:

• A median sale price of $947,500

• An average sale price of approximately $1.03 million

• A median site area of approximately 0.92 acres

• Median marketing time of 41 days

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It would be incorrect to conclude that Merville properties are automatically worth approximately 27% more than comparable Black Creek properties.

The Merville sample contains larger properties and fewer transactions. Differences in acreage, dwelling quality, accessory buildings, agricultural utility and other improvements contribute to the higher median.

Black Creek has a considerably deeper sales base and a larger proportion of properties on smaller sites.

Waterfront Is Not One Market Either

The dataset includes 44 completed waterfront transactions:

• 23 oceanfront sales

• 13 riverfront sales

• Eight lakefront sales

The median sale prices were:

• Oceanfront: $1.295 million

• Riverfront: $1.06 million

• Lakefront: $1.06 million

• Non-waterfront: $852,000

These figures show a clear association between waterfront and higher sale prices, particularly for oceanfront properties. They do not, however, establish universal waterfront adjustments. The categories contain different property types, parcel sizes and improvements. Oceanfront sales include single-family dwellings, townhouses and vacant land. Riverfront properties can vary considerably in access, bank stability, flood exposure and recreational utility. Lakefront properties may differ in water quality, shoreline characteristics, privacy and permitted use.

What Is the Premium for Waterfront Land?

Vacant-land sales provide a more focused comparison.

There were 20 non-waterfront vacant-land sales and five waterfront land sales. All five waterfront land transactions were oceanfront.

The median prices were:

• Non-waterfront land: $450,000

• Oceanfront land: $545,000

This indicates a raw median premium of approximately 21.1%.

The average oceanfront land price was $744,000, compared with $484,100 for non-waterfront land—a difference of approximately 53.7%.

A lot-size-matched analysis produced an indicated average oceanfront premium of approximately $330,000, or 79.9%. That result is noteworthy but must be treated cautiously because it is based on only five oceanfront transactions.

There were no completed riverfront or lakefront vacant-land sales in the dataset. Accordingly, there is insufficient evidence to calculate a reliable land premium for those waterfront categories.

Zoning Adds Another Layer of Complexity

The properties are distributed among several CVRD zoning categories, including RU8, R1, CR-1, RU-ALR and RU-20. Zoning can influence permitted uses, subdivision potential, agricultural activity, accessory buildings and development options.

Agricultural Land Reserve status is also a separate provincial designation and should not be confused with municipal zoning.

Two apparently similar properties may have materially different highest and best uses because of zoning, ALR status, parcel size, servicing or site-specific exceptions.

The Appraisal Perspective

Merville and Black Creek demonstrate why rural valuation requires careful property-level analysis.

A credible appraisal should consider:

• Location within the broader market area

• Parcel size and configuration

• Zoning and permitted uses

• ALR status

• Quality and condition of improvements

• Accessory buildings and agricultural utility

• Ocean, lake or river frontage

• Shoreline quality and access

• Flood, erosion and environmental influences

• Current supply and comparable-sales depth

One blended average for the entire MLS sub-area is not enough.

In markets this diverse, the quality of the conclusion depends on properly segmenting the sales before attempting to measure value. These properties need 'boots on the ground' appraisers who KNOW the area.