Micro Market Monday – Willow Point: Stable Prices, Slower Sales and a Divided Market

For this week’s Micro Market Monday, we are looking at the single-family residential market in Willow Point, one of Campbell River’s largest and most active residential neighbourhoods.

The latest VIREB MLS® data provide a useful picture of how the market has changed since 2021.

The dataset includes 975 Willow Point SFD sales dating back to January 2021, together with 66 active listings and 16 pending sales in the current market.

The conclusion is not that Willow Point is weak. It is that the market has become slower, more selective and increasingly segmented by price range.

Sales activity has eased in 2026

Comparing sales over the same January 1 to August 1 period provides the fairest measure of market activity. Willow Point recorded 128 SFD sales during that period in 2021, 113 in 2022, 115 in 2023, only 75 in 2024, 119 in 2025 and 110 in 2026.

That means 2026 sales volume is approximately 7.6% below the same period last year.

However, context matters. The current 110 transactions are still almost 47% higher than the 75 sales recorded during the same period in 2024. Full-year sales also rebounded significantly in 2025, increasing from 141 transactions in 2024 to 174.

Willow Point therefore remains an active market. What we are seeing in 2026 is better described as a moderation from last year’s recovery rather than a collapse in demand.

Prices are remarkably stable

The sale-price data tell an equally interesting story.

The median SFD sale price from January 1 to August 1 was approximately:

-$679,500 in 2021,

-$775,000 in 2022,

-$725,000 in 2023,

-$740,000 in 2024,

-$741,500 in 2025 and

-$750,000 in 2026.

The 2026 median is only about 1.1% higher than the same period last year.

Apart from the 2022 peak, Willow Point has therefore traded within a relatively narrow price range for several years.

Transaction volume and marketing time have changed considerably since the extremely competitive market of 2021 and early 2022, yet the median price level has shown considerable resilience.

In other words, the adjustment has occurred more through time and negotiating conditions than through significant price depreciation.

Homes are taking longer to sell

Days on market provide perhaps the clearest indication of changing market conditions.

Median marketing time for Willow Point SFD sales during the January-to-August period was just 17 days in 2021 and 14 days in 2022.

By 2023 it had increased to 33 days, followed by 34 days in 2024 and 30 days in 2025.

In 2026, the median has increased to 39 days.

That is almost three times the 2022 level.

This does not mean desirable properties are difficult to sell. It means buyers generally have more alternatives and more time to compare properties. Condition, age, renovation quality, ocean views, lot utility, secondary accommodation and—most importantly—asking price can have a much greater effect on marketing time.

Current inventory tells an even more interesting story

There are currently 66 active SFD listings in the Willow Point dataset.

The median asking price is approximately $847,000, compared with the 2026 YTD median sale price of $750,000. The active inventory ranges from $509,000 to just under $2 million.

Twenty-four of the 66 active properties have already been exposed for at least 60 days, while 14 have exceeded 90 days. Using the trailing 12-month sales pace, current inventory represents approximately 4.8 months of supply overall. This is a directional calculation rather than an official VIREB months-of-inventory statistic, but it is useful for understanding current market balance.

The more revealing finding appears when inventory is separated by price.

There isn't one Willow Point market

The $600,000 to $799,999 range is currently the most liquid portion of the market, representing approximately three months of inventory based on the trailing sales pace.

Estimated inventory increases to approximately 4.5 months below $600,000 and 4.9 months between $800,000 and $999,999.

Above $1 million, however, the estimated inventory rises to approximately 12.6 months.

That difference is significant.

There are currently 21 active listings above $1 million, representing almost 32% of all active Willow Point SFD inventory. Yet only 15 of the 110 sales recorded in 2026 have occurred above $1 million.

That means the upper end of the market is carrying considerably more supply relative to demand.

For sellers and appraisers, this is precisely why neighbourhood-wide statistics must be treated carefully. A $700,000 property and a $1.3-million property may both be located in Willow Point, but they are currently participating in very different competitive environments.

BCREA expects more activity in 2027 — not dramatically higher prices

The latest BCREA Third Quarter Housing Forecast provides a useful broader context.

BCREA forecasts Vancouver Island MLS® sales to decline 5.7% in 2026, from 7,427 transactions in 2025 to approximately 7,000 this year.

Sales are then forecast to rebound 7.1% in 2027 to approximately 7,500 transactions.

Prices are expected to move much less dramatically. BCREA forecasts the Vancouver Island average MLS® price at approximately $760,000 in 2026 and $765,000 in 2027, representing increases of just 1.0% and 0.7%, respectively. BCREA also expects five-year fixed mortgage rates to remain around the mid-4% range.

That forecast fits reasonably well with what the Willow Point data are already showing.

Market activity can improve without producing another major increase in values.

The appraisal takeaway

Willow Point remains one of Campbell River’s most important residential micro-markets, but the current data demonstrate why broad averages can be misleading.

Overall prices are stable. Sales continue to occur. But marketing times have increased, buyers have more choice and market balance varies significantly by price range.

A typical family home priced between $600,000 and $800,000 currently faces a much different competitive environment than a premium residence above $1 million.

From an appraisal perspective, that means careful selection of truly comparable sales—and analysis of the competitive listing environment—matters more than simply applying an average neighbourhood trend.

The late-summer 2026 Willow Point market can therefore be summarized fairly simply:

Values are holding, sales are slightly slower, and the higher-priced segment is experiencing considerably more competition.

If BCREA’s forecast proves accurate, 2027 may bring more buyers and more transaction, but not necessarily another major escalation in residential values.