Why Courtenay’s Rental Market Doesn’t Follow National Rent Trends

On February 9, 2026 we read a national headline that suggested that rents across Canada are declining.

According to the Rentals.ca "National Rent Report", average asking rents have softened year-over-year in many major urban centres, driven by increased apartment supply, slowing population growth, and affordability pressures.

In fact, the headline was written: Canada’s Rents Decline for 16th Consecutive Month"

However, this morning we listened to one Vancouver Island's respected local economist tell our local Comox Valley Chamber of Commerce that despite these headlines, the rental rates per month in the City of Courtenay are actually higher than they were in 2024.

At Jackson & Associates, we delve a little deeper into the real estate data. When we examine long-term, locally grounded data, a very different story emerges in the Comox Valley.

Using Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) rental data for the Courtenay spanning 2010 to 2025, it is clear that Courtenay’s rental market does not mirror national trends.

A 15-Year View: Steady Upward Rent Pressure

CMHC’s historical rental data shows a consistent, long-term upward trend in Courtenay rents across all unit types. Over the past decade and a half:

• Average rents have increased almost every year

• There have been no prolonged periods of rent decline

• Even major economic disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic - failed to produce sustained rent decreases.

  
  

In contrast to the volatility seen in large metropolitan markets, Courtenay’s rental market demonstrates remarkable stability. Rents may pause briefly, but they do not reset downward.

Post-2019: Structural Change, Not a Cycle

Since 2019, rent growth in Courtenay has accelerated meaningfully. CMHC data shows strong increases in one- and two-bedroom units through 2024 and into 2025. This is not a speculative spike or short-term anomaly - it reflects a structural imbalance between supply and demand.

Courtenay has experienced a surge in purpose-built rental construction. This new supply is nearing full 'lease-up' and while the vacancy rates are climbing, the presence of new constructions renting at higher rates is a factor in the average rent calculations along with:

• Population in-migration from higher-cost BC markets

• An aging demographic downsizing into rental housing

• Stable public-sector, healthcare, and military employment

• Low tenant turnover and longer average tenancies

The result is a market that remains persistently tight, even as national conditions soften.

Why the "National Rent Report" Misses the Local Reality

National rent reports are useful, but only in the right context. They are heavily influenced by large urban markets where rental supply can increase rapidly and asking rents respond quickly.

Courtenay is a smaller market area and thus, fundamentally different.

National Rent Reports	CMHC Courtenay Data
Asking rents	Achieved market rents
Short-term signals	Long-term structural trends
Big-city dominated	Small, supply-constrained market
Highly cyclical	Sticky and resilient

CMHC data captures what tenants are actually paying in a stabilized rental market. In Courtenay, that data shows persistent upward pressure, not correction.

The Bottom Line

While national rent trends may point to easing conditions in Canada’s largest cities, those trends do not translate to Courtenay or the broader Comox Valley.

This is still a structurally undersupplied residential rental market with stable, inelastic demand.

From an appraisal and investment perspective, national rent declines should not be automatically applied to local income forecasts without clear, local evidence and the evidence in Courtenay continues to point toward sustained rent strength.

At Jackson & Associates Ltd., we rely on local data, long-term trends, and market-specific analysis to inform our valuation work. In the case of Courtenay’s rental market, the long view matters - and it tells a very different story than the national headlines.