Vancouver Island vs. Metro Vancouver. What 2025 signals for 2026 housing decisions

Big catchy headlines still sell… ‘Greater Vancouver Real Estate sales down 10% from 2024 and 25% below the 10 year average’..

If you only follow provincial headlines, you could be forgiven for thinking B.C. housing weakened everywhere in 2025.

Metro Vancouver did finish 2025 in a softer position. Sales were down, inventory was higher, and benchmark prices eased.

However, our markets on Vancouver Island and Greater Victoria told a different story. Sales were steady, inventory rose but stayed workable, and pricing was mostly flat with clear differences by property type and community.

That matters in 2026 because real estate decisions are local. Buyers, sellers, lenders, and market participants should not borrow a Mainland narrative and apply it to Island pricing, negotiations, or underwriting.

The problem with a single B.C. headline

Headlines are usually Metro-driven.  Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto area provide the biggest and splashiest headlines.  That is not wrong because trends in these larger markets can trickle out to the smaller areas, but it is incomplete.

When the Mainland slows, it changes sentiment across the province. It can also change buyer behaviour. But the data shows the Island did not move in lockstep in 2025.

If you are making a decision in Courtenay, Comox, Campbell River, Nanaimo, Parksville, Qualicum, or Port Alberni, you need Island evidence first, then use Metro as context.

Greater Victoria. Detached softened, condos stayed stable

Sales were steady. Greater Victoria recorded 6,918 sales in 2025, essentially flat year over year. That is usually the signature of an orderly market, not a broad decline.

Inventory rose. Active listings ended the year at 2,544, up 11.1% from December 2024. Buyers had more selection, and sellers faced a bit more pricing discipline.

Pricing split by product type. In the Victoria Core benchmark figures for December 2025, single-family was $1,255,000, down 4.7% year over year. Condos were $549,900, up 0.7% year over year.

What this means in 2026 in Victoria

• If you are selling a detached home, expect tighter pricing bands and more buyer scrutiny. Condition and presentation matter more when there is more choice.

• If you are selling a condo, the data suggests steadier pricing. You still need correct positioning, but you are not fighting the same softness seen in detached.

• If you are buying, rising inventory tends to improve negotiating conditions. That does not guarantee discounts, but it does reduce urgency and improves selection.

Vancouver Island (VIREB). Resilience, but not uniform

VIREB described 2025 with one word, “resilience.”

Sales improved slightly. 7,620 unit sales in 2025, up from 7,473 in 2024.

Inventory rose modestly. December active listings were 3,075, up 7% year over year.

Benchmarks showed modest movement.

• Single-family benchmark. $773,000, up 1%.

• Apartment benchmark. $405,400, up 3%.

• Townhouse benchmark. $537,200, down 2%.

Sub-areas did not behave the same. Benchmarks varied by community, including:

• Campbell River $670,900 (slight drop)

• Comox Valley $847,200 (+2%)

• Nanaimo $794,700 (-2%)

• Parksville-Qualicum $903,200 (+3%)

• Port Alberni $542,600 (+6%)

• North Island $432,100 (-3%)

What this means in 2026 on the Island

This is the key takeaway. You do not have “the Island market.” You have a set of micro-markets.

• If you are selling, you cannot price off a provincial headline or even a board-wide benchmark. You need neighbourhood-level comparables and current actives, then price to the market that exists today.

• If you are buying, the Island’s inventory increase is a meaningful shift. It supports a more deliberate process, better due diligence, and stronger negotiating posture in many pockets.

• If you are investing, apartments and smaller formats held up better in several nodes. That aligns with affordability demand. Detached performance was flatter and more variable by location.

  
  

A quick warning about “the average price”

Averages and medians can move simply because the mix of homes selling changes. A month with more higher-end homes can push the average up even if most properties are flat.

That is why benchmarks can be a better trend signal, because they aim to measure like-for-like changes over time.

Even then, a benchmark is not your street. For decisions that depend on a specific property, the best evidence is still current comparable sales, competitive listings, and proper time context.

What to do next.

Homeowners thinking about selling in 2026

• Watch active listings in your immediate area. More competition means sharper pricing and higher presentation standards.

• Use recent sales, but also study current listings. Buyers shop the active market first.

• If your home is unique, do not assume it will track the benchmark. Unique properties can swing more in balanced markets.

Buyers and purchasers

• Inventory is your friend. It increases choice and reduces the pressure to overbid.

• Compare “days on market” patterns, not just prices. A market can be flat on price but still take longer to sell.

• Make condition a core part of your decision. In balanced markets, deferred maintenance shows up in negotiations.

Lenders and credit decision-makers

• Collateral risk is local. Metro softness does not automatically translate to Island risk.

• Underwrite with segment-level data, not province-level sentiment.

• Pay attention to inventory changes. Inventory growth can reduce urgency and raise time-to-sell even when prices are flat.

Investors

• The Island’s stability is a strength, but it also demands precision.

• Small differences in sub-area trends can affect exit value and liquidity.

• Keep your thesis tied to local demand. Downsizer, affordability, and rental pressure do not hit every community equally.

Bottom line

Metro Vancouver’s 2025 results shaped the provincial narrative, and that narrative will influence sentiment in 2026.

But the Island ended 2025 in a more balanced posture, with small price movement overall and meaningful differences by product type and community.

If you want better outcomes in 2026, build your strategy from local evidence first. Then use the headlines as context, not as the conclusion.

Looking for local context? Connect with us anytime.