MICRO MARKET MONDAY: Union Bay / Fanny Bay – Residential Real Estate Market (Since Jan 1, 2022)
- steve451522
- 16 hours ago
- 3 min read
Located the southern end of the Comox Valley Regional District – Area A, south of Royston, north of Deep Bay. One will find the small, but robust communities of Union Bay and Fanny Bay.
The Union Bay / Fanny Bay single-family detached market is not a high-volume urban market. It is a smaller coastal/rural market where individual sales can materially influence annual statistics, especially when large waterfront, acreage, or estate-style properties are involved.
From January 1, 2022 to April 30, 2026, there were 154 recorded SFD sales in the Union Bay / Fanny Bay area.
The overall median sale price during this period was $923,500, with an average sale price of approximately $1.03 million.
The spread was wide, ranging from $250,000 at the low end to $5.0 million at the high end.
Sales Volume
Annual sales volume has remained relatively steady, with some softening in 2024 followed by stronger activity in 2025:
The market peaked statistically in 2022, when median pricing reached $990,000 and homes sold very quickly, with a median exposure time of only 11 days. By 2023 and 2024, the market had clearly normalized. Prices softened, marketing periods lengthened, and buyers became more selective.
The strongest year for sales volume was 2025, with 45 SFD sales, although the median price remained below the 2022 peak. This suggests that the market regained liquidity before fully recovering on price.
2026 Year-to-Date
Through April 2026, the area recorded 16 SFD sales, with a median sale price of $962,500.
Compared with the same January-to-April period in 2025, when the median was $881,000, the 2026 YTD median is up by roughly 9%.
That does not necessarily mean the whole market is up 9%. In a small market like Union Bay / Fanny Bay, product mix matters. A few higher-quality or waterfront-oriented sales can shift the median quickly. But the early 2026 data suggests firmer pricing than we saw through much of 2024 and 2025.
Market Interpretation
The Union Bay / Fanny Bay market is best understood as a lifestyle-driven coastal market, not a conventional subdivision market. Buyers are paying for:
proximity to Baynes Sound;
privacy and larger lots;
waterfront or water-oriented locations;
older homes with renovation potential;
rural character within commuting distance of Courtenay and Comox.
The numbers show a market that cooled after the 2022 peak, stabilized through 2024 and 2025, and is showing signs of renewed strength in early 2026.
This is not a speculative boom market. It is a selective market. Well-located properties with view, waterfront, privacy, or quality improvements continue to attract buyer attention. More compromised properties require sharper pricing and longer exposure.
Union Bay Estates: The Big Wild Card
The major long-term variable in this micro-market is the Union Bay Estates development lands.
The lands are now being marketed for sale by court order after the previous developer’s financial failure. The offering includes approximately 680 to 766 acres of waterfront and hillside development land, with five rezoned parcels and an approved master-planned community concept.
LINK TO LISTING INFORMATION: https://www.cbre.ca/properties/land/details/CA-Plus-412152/5737-island-highway-s-courtenay-british-columbia-v9n-9s2
The existing plan contemplates a large multi-phase mixed-use community, including more than 2,800 residential units, commercial space, institutional uses, park land, resort-style amenities, and a proposed marina.
This is not a minor infill project. If it eventually proceeds under new ownership, it could materially alter Union Bay’s housing supply, population base, infrastructure demands, and long-term market identity.
In the short term, however, the development remains more of a background influence than a direct competitor to existing resale housing.
Until a new owner is in place and servicing, phasing, and absorption strategy are clarified, the existing Union Bay / Fanny Bay housing market should still be analyzed primarily on current resale activity.
Bottom Line
Union Bay / Fanny Bay remains a small, distinctive, and highly variable market. The 2022 peak has passed, but the market has not collapsed. Instead, it has repriced, normalized, and become more selective. Early 2026 sales suggest renewed confidence, but the sample size remains small. For buyers, this is a market where property-specific due diligence matters. For sellers, realistic pricing matters more than ever.
And for appraisers, Union Bay / Fanny Bay is exactly the type of micro-market where broad regional statistics are not enough. There is no substitute for ‘boots on the ground’ and ‘experienced local knowledge’.
Jackson & Associates have been providing independent and qualified appraisals since 1981.
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