Groundhog Day - 2026

Vancouver Island (North of the Malahat)

Real Estate Outlook for 2026

Today is ‘Groundhog Day’ – Feb 2, 2026. The fun day each year when rodents (and other creatures) take over weather-forecasting across Canada and the USA. 

A web search reveals no less than 15 such prognosticators in Canada ranging from “Wiarton Willie” the Ontario groundhog “Lucy the Lobster” in Nova Scotia. 

On Vancouver Island, we have “Violet the Vancouver Island Marmot” (pictured above) and she has predicted 6 more weeks of winter (again).  In fact, given that these marmots live in sub-alpine / alpine environments – Violet has now predicted ‘more winter’ five times in a row.  https://groundhog-day.com/groundhogs/van-island-violet But we digress.

At Jackson & Associates it is time for us to review the annual real estate market statistics and economic indicators for 2025.  We also need to think about where things are headed and we are looking forward to attending the “Economic Outlook Breakfast” to be held at Crown Isle in Courtenay on the morning of February 10^th, hosted by the Comox Valley Chamber of Commerce. Tickets available here: https://comoxvalleychamber.com/

Stability, Selectivity, and Fundamentals First

As Vancouver Island enters 2026, the real estate market is no longer defined by rapid price escalation or abrupt correction. Instead, current data point to a market that has largely stabilized, with performance increasingly driven by location, property type, and income fundamentals rather than speculation.

Recent market evidence from the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB), viewed alongside economic indicators from the Vancouver Island Economic Alliance (VIEA), suggests a year ahead characterized by measured activity and modest growth, rather than a broad-based rebound.

Pricing Has Stabilized — Momentum Is Measured

VIREB’s January 2026 Board Area GraphStats show the average single-family detached sale price at approximately $826,000 on a rolling 12-month basis, reflecting modest year-over-year growth and a clear departure from the volatility experienced earlier in the cycle.

This trend indicates that residential values across much of Vancouver Island have found a floor, supported by population growth and limited new supply, while higher borrowing costs continue to temper demand. The result is a market where prices are holding, but gains are incremental.

Sales Activity: Balanced, Not Accelerating

While 12-month unit sales totals show slight improvement compared to the prior year, current-month activity remains uneven, particularly for single-family homes and vacant land. Marketing periods and sell-to-list ratios point to broadly balanced conditions, rather than seller-driven momentum.

This is consistent with what we are seeing across many Island markets: buyers are active, but deliberate, and transactions are increasingly sensitive to pricing accuracy and property fundamentals.

Divergence by Property Type

Market performance continues to diverge by asset class:

• Single-family detached homes remain the backbone of the market, with stable pricing and reasonable absorption when properties are correctly positioned.

• Condominiums and townhouses are showing relatively stronger liquidity, reflecting affordability constraints and demographic demand.

• Vacant land remains the weakest segment, with lower sales volumes, longer exposure times, and greater pricing volatility, driven by development cost pressures and financing constraints.

  
  

Regional Concentration Continues

Sales activity remains concentrated in Vancouver Island’s primary population centres, including Nanaimo, the Cowichan Valley, and the Comox Valley, while smaller and more remote markets continue to experience thinner demand. This aligns with longer-term employment and population trends identified through VIEA’s economic indicators.

Economic Context: Growth Below Trend

The broader economic backdrop reinforces this narrative. VIEA data indicate that Vancouver Island’s economy is expanding, but below long-term trend, with resilient labour markets and population growth offset by higher interest rates and slower national economic momentum.

For real estate markets, this environment supports stability rather than acceleration. Valuation outcomes in 2026 will depend less on market timing and more on income support, replacement cost, and localized supply-and-demand conditions.

Outlook for 2026

From a valuation and advisory perspective, 2026 is shaping up as a year of normalization:

• Price growth is expected to remain modest and highly localized

• Sales volumes should improve gradually, but a sharp rebound is unlikely

• Well-located, well-priced properties will transact; over-ambitious pricing will not

In short, Vancouver Island’s real estate market is moving forward, but cautiously.

In this environment, disciplined analysis and property-specific fundamentals matter more than headline narratives.

—Jackson & Associates Ltd.

Commercial & Residential Real Estate Appraisers

www.comoxvalleyappraisers.com