2026 Assessment Roll VS 2026 Actual Detached House Sales YTD

Every January, British Columbia property owners receive a new BC Assessment value from BC Assessment, which is an estimate of property value as at July 1 of the preceeding year.

Almost immediately, the same question starts circulating:

“Is my assessment accurate?”

One of the best ways to answer that question is through Assessment-to-Sale Ratio (ASR) analysis.

At Jackson & Associates Ltd., we reviewed 246 verified MLS sales of single-family detached homes occurring between January 1 and May 14, 2026 across five Vancouver Island market areas:

• Campbell River

• Comox

• Courtenay

• Cumberland

• Powell River

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The purpose was straightforward: compare actual market transactions against 2026 BC Assessment Roll values to determine how closely assessed values are tracking real-world market activity.

What is an ASR?

Assessment-to-Sale Ratio (ASR) is calculated as:

An ASR of:

• 1.00 indicates the property sold exactly at its assessed value

• Above 1.00 suggests the property was assessed higher than the sale price

• Below 1.00 suggests the property sold above its assessed value

  
  

ASR analysis is one of the most widely used tools in mass appraisal performance testing because it reveals both:

1. Overall market equity, and

2. Individual property outliers

   
   

Overall Market Findings

The combined dataset produced a median ASR of approximately 0.984, indicating that, on aggregate, the 2026 Roll is tracking surprisingly close to actual market activity across the regions analyzed.

That is an important result.

Despite ongoing market volatility, higher borrowing costs, and localized shifts in demand, the broader residential assessment framework appears reasonably aligned with transactional evidence.

However, the distribution also clearly demonstrates that individual property-level deviations remain significant.

Market-by-Market Breakdown

Campbell River

• Median ASR: 0.968

• Sales analyzed: 84

Campbell River showed one of the widest distributions in the dataset. While most sales clustered relatively close to parity, several substantial outliers emerged.

The largest over-assessed property recorded an ASR of 1.376, indicating the assessed value exceeded the sale price by nearly 38%.

At the opposite extreme, one sale recorded an ASR near 0.30, meaning the property sold dramatically above its assessed value.

This level of dispersion often reflects:

• atypical property conditions,

• deferred maintenance,

• estate or distress-related transactions,

• non-market motivations, or

• rapidly changing submarket conditions.

Comox

• Median ASR: 0.998

• Sales analyzed: 35

Comox produced one of the tightest and most balanced distributions in the study.

The market displayed strong clustering around parity, suggesting the 2026 Roll is highly reflective of actual transaction activity within the Town of Comox single-family market.

Only limited outlier activity was identified.

Courtenay

• Median ASR: 0.969

• Sales analyzed: 61

Courtenay demonstrated a relatively balanced distribution overall, although a handful of notable outliers appeared on both the high and low ends of the spectrum.

The highest observed ASR reached 1.232, while lower-end outliers fell into the mid-0.70 range.

This pattern is fairly typical in larger and more diverse housing markets where housing stock quality, neighbourhood appeal, and redevelopment potential vary significantly.

Cumberland

• Median ASR: 1.005

• Sales analyzed: 15

Cumberland displayed the tightest overall clustering of any market analyzed.

Most transactions fell very close to the 1.00 parity line, suggesting assessments are currently tracking market behaviour with a high degree of consistency.

This is noteworthy given Cumberland’s rapid long-term price appreciation and evolving buyer demographics over the past decade.

Powell River

• Median ASR: 1.000

• Sales analyzed: 51

Powell River generated the most extreme upper-end outliers in the study.

One transaction recorded an ASR of 1.873, meaning the assessed value was nearly 87% higher than the sale price.

That type of variance is substantial and often warrants further review to determine whether:

• the transaction represented a non-market sale,

• the property suffered from atypical physical issues,

• or the assessment itself may no longer accurately reflect current market conditions.

At the same time, the broader Powell River market still maintained a median ASR directly at parity, highlighting how individual anomalies can coexist within an otherwise balanced assessment environment.

Why Outliers Matter

The median results tell us the 2026 Roll generally performs well at a macro level.

But the outliers are where the real appraisal questions emerge.

Properties with unusually high or low ASRs can indicate:

• potential inequities within the assessment roll,

• rapidly shifting neighbourhood trends,

• physical condition discrepancies,

• functional obsolescence,

• redevelopment influences,

• or simply unique transaction circumstances.

This is why individual property analysis remains critical.

Mass appraisal systems are designed to value entire markets efficiently. They are not designed to perfectly capture every unique property characteristic.

Final Thoughts

The data suggests that the 2026 BC Assessment Roll is broadly aligned with actual residential market activity across the analyzed Vancouver Island markets.

However, individual property-level discrepancies remain significant in certain cases — particularly within more volatile or heterogeneous submarkets.

For property owners, lenders, legal professionals, municipalities, and investors, ASR analysis remains one of the clearest ways to evaluate:

• assessment equity,

• market consistency,

• and the reliability of mass appraisal outcomes.

At Jackson & Associates Ltd., we continue to monitor these trends closely as 2026 market activity develops. For questions regarding assessment review, market valuation, or appraisal consulting throughout Vancouver Island and the Upper Sunshine Coast, contact our office directly.

Jackson & Associates Ltd.www.comoxvalleyappraisers.com